As the runoff presidential election nears in Costa Rica, candidates Johnny Araya of the National Liberation Party (Spanish initials: PLN) and Luis Guillermo Solis of the Citizens’ Action Party (Spanish initials: PAC) are formulating their strategies to capture the vote that will determine the successor to President Laura Chinchilla. According to some political analysts, Guanacaste voters could tilt the balance of power and decide the next President of Costa Rica.

Whereas the elections of this past Sunday, February 2^nd were festively celebrated and praised by foreign observers, the democratic feeling was not so enthusiastic in Guanacaste. The Costa Rica Star visited polls in the rural community of Tacares, province of Alajuela, and the prosperous community of Grecia, in the comfortable outer fringes of the Central Valley; the electoral mood was certainly high-spirited in these two places. Unfortunately, such were not the reports coming from Guanacaste.

General information website Vive Santa Cruz published an Election Day photojournalism report from Tilaran to Nandayure, and their summary concluded that:

“a certain lack of interest was evident in Guanacaste during the election.

Although since the early morning hours there was some enthusiasm among those who were visibly happy to exercise their democratic right, the rest of Election Day was slow and apathetic.”

Business weekly El Financiero took a closer look at those who refrained from voting, which is a phenomenon that started in Costa Rica a few years ago when former Presidents were convicted of major fraud and sentenced to prison terms they did not serve. More than 870,000 voters abstained in Costa Rica in early February, which represents almost 32 percent of the electorate. This is a figure higher than the votes gained by either runoff candidate.

A Troubling Matter of Apathy in Guanacaste

Voter apathy was strongest in Guanacaste, Limon and Puntarenas; incidentally, these are coastal and agricultural regions that gave candidate Araya the right to advance to the runoff elections. Abstinence in Guanacaste was at an alarming 37 percent. A political analyst cited by El Financiero stated that there is a strong chance that those who did not vote on Election Day will not participate in the runoff stage; however, the burden is on the candidates to turn things around and encourage their constituents to join the inspiring democratic party enjoyed in the rest of Costa Rica -mostly in the Central Valley- just a little over a week ago.

The first round of voting was certainly not in vain for Guanacaste. Ideology prevailed, and the Frente Amplio (Broad Front) party took votes away from PAC in Guanacaste and gained legislators across Costa Rica. Broad Front was foolishly tagged as being a sort of communist boogeyman, but this alarmist strategy by other parties mostly failed. Real communists in Costa Rica (there aren’t too many) had a good laugh at this bit. Other contenders such as the Libertarian Movement and the Social Christian Union (Spanish initials: PUSC) ran into the problem of solid presidential candidates whose political parties are in shambles.

While Broad Front and its leader Jose Maria Villalta (Costa Rica’s Facebook presidential candidate) could exert some influence in the runoff elections, they are currently preparing for the next administration. In the past, candidate Villalta has worked with PLN legislators, but he is not likely to lend support to either runoff candidate at this point.

What is certain is that the candidate who is able to conquer voter abstentionism in Guanacaste could become the next President of Costa Rica. In this regard, candidate Araya has an edge since PAC is not a popular party in Guanacaste, but the real challenge is to convince those who feel disenfranchised in this province: Low-income voters.

The poverty rate in Guanacaste is 34.5 percent, and they have 14.6 percent less financial resources than other working-class Ticos. Both PLN and PAC have a hard time attracting these potential voters, who are the most likely to abstain. Many Guanacaste residents attracted to either PLN and PAC are, unfortunately for both parties, are not entitled to vote in Costa Rica: Foreign investors, businesspeople, expats and perpetual tourists who are still a long way from naturalization.