While the last poll conducted by the Center for Political Studies and Investigation of the University of Costa Rica (CIEP-UCR) revealed that 27% of the voters in Costa Rica still have not decided who to vote for, the support for other candidates appears to be motivated by religious beliefs, tradition or populism.

On Tuesday, the poll by CIEP-UCR showed evangelical pastor Fabricio Alvarado, the candidate for the National Restoration Party (PRN), ahead in the elections race by 16%; back in December this candidate had a support of only 3% according to the poll carried out by this same entity, and it was Juan Diego Castro, candidate of the National Integration Party (PIN) who was ahead with 18%.

The sudden support received by Fabricio Alvarado is attributed to the recent ruling by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights regarding same-sex marriage and transgender rights, which states that the rights of same-sex couples should be recognized and guaranteed and that the transgender population must have the right to change their name and gender in their official documents, ruling which the Costa Rican government must comply with; however, many religious groups have spoken loud and clear about their opposition to this ruling, and they have then manifested themselves supporting a candidate that identifies with their position and defends what these group consider as “family and moral values”.

Reactions to the results of this poll came swiftly, and just a few hours later information platform Bloomberg highlighted a “crash” in Costa Rican bonds; however, the “Crash” was a drop of close to 1%, described by financial experts as a “normal” movement prior to an election process where the uncertainty becomes a key issue affecting the financial market; it has happened in other election processes in Costa Rica and other countries, like the USA for example prior to the Trump election.

Juan Diego Castro came in on second place in the CIEP-UCR poll published this Tuesday, a candidate that has been aggressive and critical about traditional political parties, particularly the National Liberation Party (PLN) he used to belong to; the fact that he promises “a change” makes him a popular choice.

An interesting fact to mention is that there have been several polls carried out by authorized companies in the past ten days, and the results of the same differ from one another, in some cases drastically, for instance, the poll by Cid Gallup shows Alvarez Desanti (PLN) in the first place, followed by Fabricio Alvarado and Juan Diego Castro; the poll by Opol Consultores published January 19 shows Alvarez in first place with 22%, followed by Juan Diego Castro and Fabricio Alvarado; and the poll by Demoscopía showed Alvarez first, followed by Rodolfo Piza (PUSC) and Juan Diego Castro in third position.

One thing is sure, none of the polls have any of the candidates close to reaching the 40% required to win the elections and all surveys coincide in the fact that the biggest group is the one that hasn’t decided who to vote for.

There’s only 10 days left before the elections in Costa Rica (February 4) and this situation makes us wonder, if that group of people that have not decided who to vote for will be motivated by their religious beliefs, their family’s political tradition, promises of a change that may or may not be possible or perhaps they are taking their time to really evaluate who has the best and more realistic proposals with regards to the problems the country faces: the fiscal crisis, corruption, insecurity, inequities, public transportation, etc. and the knowledge, capacity and team to make these proposals a reality. There’s 13 candidates to choose from.